Archive for October, 2009

BJP and Haryana

October 23, 2009


Haryana results:      

BJP has done very well in all urban areas.  Anil Vij has won Ambala Cantt inspite of  INLD & BSP taking away votes.  Saraf has won Bhiwani even with INLD taking away 18000 votes.   Sonipat (Kavita jain has won) ,  Krishan pal has won Tigaon.

BJP came second  : Ateli (lost by 700 votes).   Badkhal (Congress is strong here).  Panipat City (INLD took away 21000 votes),  Faridabad (INLD & Independent strong contenders) , Ballabhgarh , Rohtak (the party has work very hard next time)  etc 

Third position  : Badli , Bawal, Gurgaon (Sukhbeer as independent has won). Jagadhri, Kalanaur ,  Yamunanagar, Shahbad etc

 As more and more urbanisation happens, BJP will gain. But if it ties up with  HJC (Bhajan Lal) then it will have problem as both BJP & HJC are competing for the same voter groups.  Under no circumstance, BJP should tie up with HJC.   Best outcome for both BJP & HJC is to merge HJC in BJP and give Bishnoi the presidentship.  The Delhi leadership of BJP might be tempted to tie up with  INLD or HJC in the local bodies election (but it should be avoided like poison).  BJP  in Haryana takes the vote of 38% Urban Punjabis.

Chautala & INLD’s  Jat votes are going away rapidly to Congress (Hooda is a Jat).   Chautala has got a bad name with all other communities.  He is a fading feudal lord.   One interesting stuff is the consolidation of  Harijan votes (Dalit is a very abusive word)  to BSP irrespective of electoral outcomes.   Another interesting point is a big section of Muslim votes going to BSP  (not to INLD or HJC ).   In the coming years Congress might be left with only Jat votes.

Congress will easily break HJC and absorb the entire party (may be expect Bishnoi)  like it did in Rajasthan (Congress made all BSP legislators to jump).   Bishnoi will loose credibility.  BJP’s  best hope is that Congress breaks   HJC.

BJP should start working as an opposition and work in rural areas also.  There are some very good issues they can take for rural areas of  Haryana.  Haryana has the same temperment like Gujarat in some fields.

 INLD  will weaken very fast as it is competing with Congress for the same Jat votes.  It doesn’t have any other platform or issue.